Constr., Infra & Materials (AO) | UK Housebuilders Monitor: Our in-depth sector update in the spotlight

Research evidence excerpt

Constr., Infra & Materials (AO) | UK Housebuilders Monitor: Our in-depth sector update in the spotlight

Connecting the dots

Release date: 03 July 2026

Carlos Caburrasi

Equity Research Analyst

+34 914 36 52 02

Constr., Infra & Materials ccaburrasiortega@keplercheuvreux.com

United Kingdom

UK Housebuilders Monitor: Our in-depth sector update in the spotlight

Key points:

Our in-depth sector report, in which we lower our earnings assumptions as we adopt a more cautious view on demand, pricing

and profitability. We remain broadly constructive on the sector, with the exception of Berkeley Group, which we downgrade to

Reduce from Hold, reflecting its high exposure to London and the South East, where affordability pressures are more acute.

Conversely, Persimmon remains our top pick, supported by its exposure to more affordable regions and its vertically integrated

model.

Recent reports of a proposed multi-billion-pound class action against our coverage over alleged anti-competitive conduct.

Berkeley’s FY 2026 results, which were broadly in line at the bottom line, with higher-than-expected volumes and commercial

revenue offset by weaker-than-expected selling prices and margins.

Management comments from Bellway and Berkeley indicating that customer demand has begun to moderate in recent months

amid the higher mortgage rate environment.

A brief summary of the wave of planning approvals and agreements with housing associations and affordable housing providers

across our coverage.

Temperature check

The recent 0.1% MOM month decline in average house prices marks the third consecutive month of negative growth. Regional

divergence remains pronounced, with Northern Ireland, northern England and Scotland continuing to outperform, while London