Aisles & Alpha - From Ice Age to Heat Wave.... Takeaways from Store Visits in Chicago & Dallas

Research evidence excerpt

Aisles & Alpha - From Ice Age to Heat Wave.... Takeaways from Store Visits in Chicago & Dallas

Broadlines & Hardlines

Auto Parts Retail - Market Weight

Dollar Stores - Market Overweight

Home Improvement - Market Weight

Mass Merchants - Market Weight

Aisles & Alpha - From Ice Age to Heat Wave.... Takeaways June 29, 2026

from Store Visits in Chicago & Dallas

The Wolfe Byte

We walked several dozen stores in the Dallas and Chicago markets this weekend. Traffic was strong (ex-home

improvement), but promos are ticking higher. The weather is improving, and gas prices are moving lower, which

should be a top-line tailwind for the Sector into July.

(+/=) Target's store resets are on track, and traffic was strong, but there was elevated clearance. (=) Walmart

execution was steady again and our sample of Rollbacks implied 15-20% discounts with the heaviest cuts in BTS

categories. (=) At Home Depot & Lowe's the appliance discounts were similar at roughly 30%, but the messaging

for Lowe's was clearer, in our view. (=) Five Below has rolled out a new Dorm Sweet Dorm set in their stores this

was interesting, given their younger core age demographic. Summer sell-through is strong at FIVE. (+/-) Dollar

Tree did make changes to end caps with more prominent positioning of $1 price points, but store execution remains

choppy. On (+) Amazon, we visited the site of their new Supercenter concept (30% bigger than WMT Supercenter),

which had just recently broken ground, and we expect this to be closely watched by the industry. (-) Tractor Supply

promotions were heavy in stores, but sales remain sluggish as investors prepare for a cut.

(+) Weather, Gas Prices, War & Overall Consumer Set-Up for July is Improving. Gas prices are now below $3.90

a gallon nationally.