Loan Chartbook: June 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Loan Chartbook: June 2026

Accessible version

Loan Chartbook

June 2026

An expanded chartbook report replaces our regular HY and Loan strategy report this week. 01 July 2026

Please see our Loan Chartbook excel United States

Rates gyrate on mixed data Neha Khoda

Credit Strategist

June saw markets digest hot payrolls and inflation (Core CPI +2.9% YoY) heading into a BofAS

hawkish Jun 17-18 FOMC, driving treasury bear flattening (2yr +17bps; 10yr +3bps). Fed +1 646 855 9656 neha.khoda@bofa.com

hike expectations have been pulled forward, w/ markets now pricing in 35bps of Fed hikes

Adam Vogel

by year end, up from 13bps at the beginning of the month. While latest developments Credit Strategist

(Iran+ISM prices paid) suggest some clawback, Fed expectations have become increasingly BofAS +1 646 855 6902

bimodal, reflecting two competing macro regimes: either (A) inflation proves sufficiently adam.vogel@bofa.com

broad and persistent to force Warsh’s hand into 2-3 hikes (in line with house view: see

our report, Change of call), or (B) some combination of softer data, sustained geopolitical

See our Loan Chartbookdeescalation, and growth deceleration removes the justification for hiking entirely.

Loan spreads increasingly tethered to equities

Loan spreads remained pressured through the month weighed by software and Glossary:

semiconductor concerns before alleviating towards month end. TR was barely green at TL: Term Loan

+8bps, with spreads widening 15bps (-0.4pt). HY outperformed (+0.25%) as spreads RV: Relative Value

retraced nearly all of their Jun 22 – 26 widening, diverging from Loans. Note that despite TR: Total Return

the weakness, loans proved resilient in the days immediately following June 17-18 FOMC

AI: Artificial Intelligence

even as the Fed delivered a hawkish message.