FX Watch: June Toshin flows: household outward investment accelerates, focus on July

Research evidence excerpt

FX Watch: June Toshin flows: household outward investment accelerates, focus on July

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FX Watch

June Toshin flows: household outward

investment accelerates, focus on July

Exhibit 1: Estimated monthly net inflows into major foreign asset Toshins (¥bn) 01 July 2026

If the 2024 pattern holds, July could also see strong inflows G10 FX Strategy

Global

2024 2025 2026

2000 Shusuke Yamada, CFA

FX/Rates Strategist

BofAS Japan

1500 +81 3 6225 8515

shusuke.yamada@bofa.com

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Household investment in foreign equities picked up in June

Estimated net inflows into major foreign asset Toshins (Japanese investment trusts)

totaled ¥1.5tn in June, marking the third-largest monthly amount on record, excluding

January when buying is typically strong at the start of the year (Exhibit 1). Global asset

investment trusts (¥1.35tn) continued to attract retail flows, while June also saw inflows

into US-focused funds (¥270bn) and Japan-focused funds (¥447bn) (Exhibit 2 and Exhibit

3). With the strong performance of Japanese equities, attention is likely to focus on

whether allocation to yen assets increases; however, inflows into foreign asset

investment trusts remain highly stable, with no signs of deceleration (Exhibit 4).

Continued household shift into risk assets

The Flow of Funds data for Q1 (January–March), released last week, showed that the

share of risk assets in total household financial assets reached a record high of 25.9%

(Exhibit 5). The allocation to cash and deposits remains elevated at 47%, suggesting

ample room for rebalancing toward an inflation-oriented portfolio. Net cash dropped

below 30% for the first time since 2009.