Situation Room: IG July supply: $130bn

Research evidence excerpt

Situation Room: IG July supply: $130bn

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Situation Room

IG July supply: $130bn

Credit Analysis

IG July supply: $130bn 30 June 2026

We look for $130bn in US IG supply in July, down from the much heavier than expected Credit Strategy

$201bn in June. Our forecast implies the highest issuance for the month of July since United States

July 2015 (Exhibit 1). Still, the volume is consistent with the elevated pace of issuance Cross Product

for the full year 2026. IG index technicals should be more favorable. IG net index supply Yuri Seliger

less coupon income should decline to -$17bn in July from +$63bn in June (Exhibit 2). Credit Strategist

BofAS

Many moving parts +1yuri.seliger@bofa.com646 855 7209

Our July supply forecast balances upside risks from the strong June momentum and a Sohyun Marie Lee

large M&A pipeline with downside risks from banks and hyperscalers, who likely CreditBofAS Strategist

frontloaded supply in 2026. We estimate $125bn is the baseline July supply consistent +1 646 855 7217

sohyun.lee@bofa.com

with our $1.84tr annual forecast.

Strong momentum. Even after excluding the two June mega-deals (NVDA and SPCX),

In this reportJune supply reached $151bn, significantly above our $120bn forecast. This pent-up pace

of issuance could continue into July. Large M&A pipeline. We estimate the M&A deal Daily supply snapshot

pipeline that could potentially come in July at $60+bn. Our baseline forecast implies

about $20bn of M&A supply, suggesting risks are to the upside. Less bank issuance. Daily dealer inventories update

Bank supply is up $82bn YtD. We think that means banks have front-loaded borrowing in

Daily HG fund flows

2026, which should result in less bank supply in July, where financials account for 63% of