Auto E-commerce: Latest Data Points

Research evidence excerpt

Auto E-commerce: Latest Data Points

June 22, 2026 Auto E-commerce: Latest Data Points

Raising CVNA Estimates Following June's Strong Retail-Wholesale

Spread Recovery; Industry Inventory Rises at Fastest Clip Since the Chip Marvin Fong, CFA

Shortage (212) 527-3562 mfong@btig.comTECHNOLOGY, WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: The past few months have registered some of the largest

monthly increases in used car prices since the chip shortage. From February to mid-

June, used car prices are up ~$2,200, the most on a rolling four-month basis since

September 2021. Meanwhile, wholesale prices have modestly retreated based on mid-MEDIA month data from Manheim (owned by Cox Auto [Private]). The upshot is the retail-

wholesale spread has reached its widest level of 2026 and, assuming at least stable

retail prices next month, the spread should get even larger in July. The retail-wholesaleAND spread has taken on more significance since Carvana (CVNA, Buy, $97 PT) called it out

on its May 8 conference call. At the time, the QTD spread was showing compression

on a y/y basis, but the strong June performance narrowed the gap considerably, to

the point where the spread is close to even on a y/y basis after being down 2% in

both April and May. To be sure, the price increases are at least in part reflecting the

mismatch in timing as wholesale prices lead retail prices by 1-2 months. Mix is also

boosting average used car prices as the inventory of lower-priced vehicles (<$20K) fell

in April while higher-priced inventory grew, according to Cox. Underlying dynamics

notwithstanding, the market looks at calendar quarter results and so the robust retail-

wholesale spread in June should be helpful for CVNA's 2Q26 retail GPU relative to

expectations just a month and a half ago.