Retail - Thailand: Weak home improvement in June could extend into 3Q26

Research evidence excerpt

Retail - Thailand: Weak home improvement in June could extend into 3Q26

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Retail - Thailand

Weak home improvement in June could

extend into 3Q26

Industry Overview

Fading stockpiling and delayed new demand drag sales 30 June 2026

Overall consumption in June should remain broadly similar to May, with average SSS Equity

expected to be in the negative low single-digits. If we are correct, average 2Q26 SSS ASEAN | Thailand

should remain slightly positive. Despite easing oil prices in June, we expect discretionary Retailing

spending to soften further MoM to the negative low single-digits. This contrasts with

Sirichai Chalokepunrat ^^^

consumer staples whose SSS should be similar to May. The weakness in discretionary Research Analyst

spending should be driven mainly by construction material retailers, particularly GLOBAL Kiatnakin Phatra Securities

+66 2 305 9204

and HMPRO. We expect SSS to decline by around 300bp MoM, reflecting fading sirichai.chal@kkpfg.com

stockpiling demand and delays in new construction activities, as customers postpone

purchases in anticipation of further declines in commodity prices amid still-weak

consumer sentiment. Meanwhile, overseas operations (CRC Vietnam) should continue to

improve sequentially, supported by the narrowing THB-VND exchange rate gap. We

expect CPALL and CRC to deliver positive SSS in 2Q26.

Consumer staples Exhibit 1: Recommendation highlights

We expect consumer staples’ June SSS to remain broadly in line with May at slightly Ratings and Price Objective of stocks

positive, resulting in positive low single-digit SSS for 2Q26. Hypermarkets should remain BofA

the weakest format, with negative SSS driven by softer non-food and fresh food sales, Stock ticker Recomm PO (Bt)

partly from falling meat prices.