Coverage Notes Ahead of Tomorrow's Event

Research evidence excerpt

Coverage Notes Ahead of Tomorrow's Event

June 28, 2026

1. Fears about fixed-duration regimens continue to weigh on the stock, while

ONC’s own FD pivotal update is still a few years out.

2. ASCO updates were good but early. There was some pushback on GI tox for

the CDK4 inhibitor, though this is partly offset by Pfizer’s neutropenia issues.

Next catalyst: MRD-neg update later this year from the CELESTIAL CLL trial.

Management recently acknowledged it is a high bar; we estimate ~60% POS for this

to hit.

(+/-) ASND: M&A/betaville rumor for the nth time? Near-term, Yorvipath needs to

beat consensus estimates for the stock to maintain recent momentum; we are at ~

€252M for 2Q26E. We think a beat is possible based on estimated new patient starts.

Separately, the ITC update in August could generate a small pullback, likely -5-10%.

(+) CELC: Investors have punished the stock given the absolute mPFS miss, but we

think the weakness is overdone. We highlight in an earlier note that fundamentals

remain intact and both the 2L and 1L mkt opportunities are not viewed appropriately

by the market. We’d also put CELC in the M&A basket, given other precedents in the

mBC landscape.

Valuation rich

(-) KRYS / (-) CORT: Both stocks have worked well, though significant pipeline value

is now being ascribed to both. We are on the sidelines for KRYS given the prior

protocol/dosing changes for the ocular programs and we await additional de-risking.

We estimate >50% of the current valuation is tied to pipeline value. We are positive on

CORT’s ovarian launch, but not on rela’s resubmission in Cushing’s and the antitrust-

case.

Binaries (we don't like coin flips):

(+) ORIC: We are dialing back some of our pessimism around the PFE binary, as a few