Bank Negara Malaysia preview La pausa

Research evidence excerpt

Bank Negara Malaysia preview La pausa

30 June 2026

Bank Negara Malaysia preview EconomicsMalaysia

La pausa

◆ While some ASEAN central banks have rushed to hike rates, Yun Liu

we do not believe the same conditions apply to Malaysia Senior ASEAN Economist

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

yun.liu@hsbc.com.hk

◆ Malaysia’s growth remains resilient, boosted by AI-related +852 2822 4297

trade, while inflation is shielded by petrol subsidies Madhurima Nag

Associate

Bangalore

◆ We expect Bank Negara Malaysia to maintain its policy rate

at 2.75% on 9 July, but we keep an eye on its tone on FX

Why rush? In the face of spiking inflation and weak local currencies, many ASEAN

central banks have embarked on a hiking cycle. The Monetary Authority of Singapore

(MAS) tightened its monetary policy in April, although it was largely a pre-emptive

move. Bank Indonesia (BI) rushed to hike 75bp in a span of three weeks not so long

ago, while the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) hiked 50bp. However, we do not

expect Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to follow suit. After all, Malaysia remains

one of two resilient economies, in addition to Singapore, in ASEAN. AI has not only

boosted growth and trade but also widened Malaysia’s current account (see ASEAN

Perspectives: Twin deficits, 29 June 2026). Meanwhile, Malaysia has seen one of the

region’s lowest inflation prints, thanks to generous subsidies (see Malaysia in Focus,

22 May 2026). The recent announcement on diesel, with a lowered price of MYR2.10/l

under a shared monthly cap of 200l, suggests to us that there will unlikely be major

fiscal adjustments in petrol in the near term, thereby limiting upside risks to inflation.

Mention of the MYR in the statement? We do not expect major shifts in BNM’s neutral