Cease Fire Under Fire; “Right Tail” vs “Just In Case”; E&P Discounting What?

Research evidence excerpt

Cease Fire Under Fire; “Right Tail” vs “Just In Case”; E&P Discounting What?

USA | Energy EquityJuneResearch28, 2026

Cease Fire Under Fire; “Right Tail” vs “Just In June 29 at 10:00am EST: JEDI – Trades,

Case”; E&P Discounting What? De-escalation, Midstream, ENI, SPM, SUBC – Register

Investors remain focused on positioning between “right tail” and “just-in-case,”

with strongest interest in services but continued debate on E&P valuation and Find out which three figures from history

refining. We address both, while also including the link to a podcast with Dwight Dwight would want at his dinner table!

Kimmeridge, Apple Podcasts, SpotifyAnderson (Ospraie) on commodity/equity dislocations. We also highlight CVX’s

data center strategy and provide updates on AR, FLOC, INVX and MUR.

Energy investors are reassessing how to position in oil equities following a full "mark-to-market"

price adjustment. Despite over 100 days of Strait disruption, commodity markets proved more

resilient than expected, effectively compressing perceived right-tail risk-reward. While at the same

time, the conflict has created a lasting geopolitical framework, particularly for the Strait, which is

unlikely to ever revert to pre-war norms. In this context, capital allocation is likely shifting toward

“just-in-case” resilience rather than “just-in-time” efficiency—supportive for "bottleneck providers"

and oil field service names tied to supply security. For E&Ps, the focus remains firmly on valuation.

Over the past month, E&P valuations (XOP) have derated from an ~11% FCF yield to ~14% as

the 24-month WTI strip declined from $79/bbl to $71/bbl (Ex 1). While consensus appears to

expect ~$67-to-68/bbl WTI longer term (per Bloomberg consensus), our work suggests equities are