JEF Macro Weekly—Half Time, Time to Raise RUTs Target; Mother of All Cycles

Research evidence excerpt

JEF Macro Weekly—Half Time, Time to Raise RUTs Target; Mother of All Cycles

Global | Equity Strategy EquityJuneResearch28, 2026

STRATEGY NOTEJEF Macro Weekly—Half Time, Time to Raise

RUTs Target; Mother of All Cycles

GREED & fear is convinced that concerns about malinvestment will be likely

trigger for end to AI trade, or pause to refresh, given huge amounts spent to the

continuing benefit of picks\shovels. Mohit says market pricing in 31bps of hikes

from Fed, should be taken out. Similarly, market pricing in one hike for ECB, will

not be delivered. It has been a very good start for Small YTD, DeSanctis raises

RUT target to 3190, earnings growth 15.7%, fade Mo\High Beta.

GREED & fear—is convinced that concerns about malinvestment will be the most likely trigger for

an end to the AI trade, or a protracted pause to refresh, given the huge amounts being spent by the

main players to the continuing benefit of the picks and shovels plays. But it is quite another matter

to be able to time when investors start to focus on this issue. Still the key point to note for now is

that this is the way the cycle is most likely to end rather than because of a sudden increase in supply.

Mohit Kumar—We keep a bullish view, as we enter a seasonally positive month. We expect to see

more repricing in rates, which supports rates & duration sensitive products including credit. Market

is pricing in 31bps of hikes from Fed, which we believe should be taken out. Similarly for ECB, market

is pricing in one full hike by end of year, which we do not think will be delivered.

Thomas Simons—Conditions have improved substantially from the middle of '25. The combined

impact of tighter immigration control, on-again-off-again tariffs, and the relentless loss of work