DHL Group (DHL GR) Hold: 2Q26 preview; Express-led upgrades, but macro still a drag

Research evidence excerpt

DHL Group (DHL GR) Hold: 2Q26 preview; Express-led upgrades, but macro still a drag

iff uncertainty, including

52-WEEK PRICE (EUR)

the possibility of shipment “front-loading” ahead of potential July changes. Despite

these risks, there is no strong evidence of broad-based consumer caution, and we 58.00

still expect a normal 4Q peak season. 46.00

Improving Express momentum supports a modest EBIT uplift: Express volumes 34.00

06/25 12/25 06/26

were up 2% y-o-y in 1Q26, with trends improving going into 2Q26. We expect this

Target price: 55.00 High: 53.00 Low: 37.05 Current: 52.14

momentum to continue, supported by operating leverage as prior cost actions flow

Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

through. Global trade is growing, albeit with markedly different patterns across US

versus non-US trade lanes.

Parash Jain*

Forwarding repricing improving; ocean lag likely persists: While Express is Global Head of Transport & Logistics Research

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

tracking better, improving volume momentum air freight pricing can reprice relatively parashjain@hsbc.com.hk

quickly, even if ocean repricing lags and prior capacity bought at higher rates can still +852 2996 6717

pressure margins. Overall, we see scope for modest estimate upgrades led by Deepak Maurya*, CFA

Analyst, Asia Transport

Express, but not enough yet to turn more constructive given ongoing macro/tariff The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

uncertainty and the inherent volatility in Forwarding. deepakmaurya@hsbc.com.hk

+852 2822 4292

We raise 2026-27e EBIT by 3-4% on a stronger Express outlook. We now expect 2026

Bruce Chu*, CFA

reported EBIT of EUR6.6bn, 6% above company guidance and in line with company cons. Analyst, Asia Transport