Surprise Indices Eurozone Inflation Surprise index moved lower

Research evidence excerpt

Surprise Indices Eurozone Inflation Surprise index moved lower

Surprise Indices Multi-AssetGlobal 

Eurozone Inflation Surprise index moved lower

Big surprises since previous edition: Mark McDonald

Head of AI and Data Science

◆ US Housing Starts 3.0 s.d. worse than expected HSBC Bank plc

mark.mcdonald@hsbcib.com

+44 20 7991 3119

◆ UK Mortgage Approvals 1.9 s.d. worse than expected

Paul Mackel

Global Head of FX Research

◆ Germany ZEW Survey 1.8 s.d. better than expected The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation

Limited

paulmackel@hsbc.com

The US Activity Surprise Index remained broadly stable in recent Seven out of 18 of our activity surprise indices are trending upwards, +852 2288 5523

weeks, as stronger-than-expected data releases such as Chicago PMI, eight show no clear direction, and three are trending downwards. Vanchit Gupta

Associate

personal income, and the change in nonfarm payrolls were offset by On the inflation front, two of our 11 surprise indices are trending Bangalore

negative surprises in housing starts, new-home sales, and industrial upwards, four show no direction, and five are trending downwards.

production. However, the US Activity Surprise Index remains in a long- Issuer of report:

Many of these indices are available on Bloomberg. To see this HSBC Bank plcterm uptrend. The US Inflation Surprise Index moved broadly sideways

data on Bloomberg type: ALLX HSES<GO>

in recent weeks, with notable surprises in the PCE Core Deflator,

30 June 2026

Import Price Index, and CPI Ex Food & Energy. How to read the Surprise Index charts

Our Eurozone Activity Surprise Index moved higher in recent weeks, Our indices are designed so that it is the direction in which the index is