VRSK: 2Q26E Preview: In-Line Quarter Ahead; 2H26 Acceleration Likely as Prior Headwinds Lap

Research evidence excerpt

VRSK: 2Q26E Preview: In-Line Quarter Ahead; 2H26 Acceleration Likely as Prior Headwinds Lap

23m, within company guidance of $3,190m-

$3,240m (4%-5% y/y growth). That's driven by Underwriting & Rating revenue of ~$2,271m

and Claims revenue of ~$945m. Our total adj. EBITDA/margin estimate of ~$1,816m/~56.5% is

relatively in-line with consensus estimate of ~$1,815m/~56.3% and within company guidance

of $1,790m-$1,830m (56%-56.5% margin). We are modeling adj. EPS of ~$7.65 vs. consensus

estimate of ~$7.67, within company guidance of $7.45-$7.75. (See Exhibit 2)

Ensuring Legal Security Around Data Rights. The company confirmed that the sales cycle

elongation discussed on the last earnings call stems from contractual and legal complexity

around securing AI data rights both from a VRSK and customer side, and not from any pushback

from Insurance companies for MCP products. The company is being mindful to ensure it takes

the necessary steps to ensure customer contracts protect the company's data use rights and

establishes appropriate contract language for an AI-enabled environment. Both VRSK and its

customers are working to understand and protect their respective interests as they navigate this

evolving landscape.

Customer Retention and Pricing Power Remain Intact. Despite earlier market concerns about

third-party data contribution hesitancy from insurers, management reports no observable

pushback from insurance companies on ISO data contributions. More importantly, large

customer renewals are occurring at equal or longer terms with pricing at or above prior

increases.

Government Work Stoppage Remains a Headwind, But Manageable. Federal contract

headwinds persist specifically in the subscription segment, though management notes