State of U.S. Consumer Lending: Stable Trends Despite War, Rising Rates, and GenAI Fears

Research evidence excerpt

State of U.S. Consumer Lending: Stable Trends Despite War, Rising Rates, and GenAI Fears

ata, Federal Reserve

Board credit conditions, household debt, MBA mortgage data, and Optimal Blue rate lock volumes.

Additionally, we have included historical data on revenue, margins, EPS, and 7-year CAGR. Please see

our prior State of Consumer Lending notes (March 2026, December 2025, August 2025, March 2025,

December 2024, June 2024, January 2024, Sep 2023, and April 2023) for historical context, and email

us or your RBC Sales contact if you are interested in the underlying data.

ABA Consumer Credit Index. The American Bankers Association's Credit Conditions Index rose 11.3

points to 48.8 in 2Q26, remaining below the neutral threshold of 50 for the sixth consecutive quarter

and signaling expectations of deteriorating credit conditions over the next six months. The Consumer

Credit Index increased 9.2 points to 42.5 in 2Q26 after two consecutive declines, reflecting mixed

consumer credit expectations with improved availability but cautious banker sentiment. The Business

Credit Index rose 13.3 points to 55.0 in 2Q26, crossing above 50 and indicating expected improvement

in business credit quality and availability. While credit conditions are projected to remain stable with

modest softening amid labor market headwinds and external shocks, economists anticipate moderate

real GDP growth through end of 2027 with a 25% recession probability in 2026. Persistent inflation

and modest job growth remain headwinds despite bankers' more favorable business credit outlook

offsetting weaker consumer credit expectations. See Exhibits 1-2.

VantageScore CreditGauge update. In May, consumer credit remained resilient as delinquency rates