Asia Economics: The Viewpoint: Investors’ questions on our capex super-cycle thesis

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Economics: The Viewpoint: Investors’ questions on our capex super-cycle thesis

IdeaM

1) The capex and industrial super-cycle is just driven by AI,

isn’t it?

AI is a key driver but energy, defense, and efforts to onshore industrial supply

chains are equally important in driving this capex super-cycle. In addition to rising

domestic capex, Asia’s industrial super-cycle is also driven by a sharp, broad-based

rise in exports. Semis exports are super strong but non-semis exports are growing

at their strongest pace since the mid-2000s (ex-base effects), with strength across

almost all end-use segments.

We see multiple drivers of this capex and industrial super-cycle: Undoubtedly, AI and

AI-related infrastructure spending is one of the key drivers, but energy, defense, and

industrial capex also lend significant structural support to this super-cycle (see Asia

Economics: Headed Towards an Industrial Super-Cycle, 27 April 2026). Economies across

the region have already committed to raising their spending on energy and defense over

the medium term. At the same time, economies are investing to secure their supply chains,

which also creates a structural need for rising industrial capex.

The incoming trade data are already exhibiting robust growth beyond AI: Asia’s exports

and capital goods imports across the US, Europe, and Asia are already growing very

strongly. Asia's semis and non-semis exports are both contributing to the strength in

overall exports. As we dive deeper into these data sets, they reveal strength that extends

beyond AI.

• Non-semis exports: Asia’s non-semis exports have risen 26% since the October

trough on an annualized basis and are the strongest since the mid-2000s

(excluding the periods which were influenced by base effects). The non-semis