European Chemicals Analysis of the latest Chinese and European chems trade flows

Research evidence excerpt

European Chemicals Analysis of the latest Chinese and European chems trade flows

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

03 July 2026

European Chemicals

Analysis of the latest Chinese and European chems

trade flows

May 2026 chemicals trade data confirm record and near-record net export breadth European Chemicals

ACfrom China, suggesting limited production disruption despite the Middle East (ME) Chetan Udeshi, CFA

conflict. Chinese chemical net exports hit new record highs across several categories (44-20) 7742-7034

– organic chemicals flipped to a net-export position (versus being a net importer in the chetan.x.udeshi@jpmorgan.com

past), plastics & articles were +56% YoY, perfumery & essential oils +47% YoY, Angelina Glazova, CFA

tanning/dyeing +19% YoY, and inorganics +3% YoY, all records – with fertilizers the (44-20) 7134-8379

notable exception at -49% YoY. Trade prices remained inflationary both MoM and angelina.glazova@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

YoY, reflecting significant April naphtha (oil derivative) inflation and temporary

value-chain disruptions; however, May is likely to mark the China export pricing Specialist Sales contact details:

peak, as Chinese spot prices for several products have already rolled over substantially

Sam Edmunds - Specialist Sales -

through June, even ahead of the recent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) and European Industrials

the collapse in oil prices. Overall, easing ME geopolitical risk shifts investor focus (44-20) 7742-8733

away from potential 2Q26 earnings beats and back toward the structural headwinds sam.edmunds@jpmorgan.com

of significant industry overcapacity (especially in China) and intensifying

competition in specialty products from Chinese and other Asian producers. We see