J.P. Morgan LatAm FTM 2 Jul 26 SIMPAR & Subsidiaries; Mexico Consumer; LatAm Monthly Wrap - June 2026; Brazilian Banks; Brazilian Education and More

Research evidence excerpt

J.P. Morgan LatAm FTM 2 Jul 26 SIMPAR & Subsidiaries; Mexico Consumer; LatAm Monthly Wrap - June 2026; Brazilian Banks; Brazilian Education and More

Latin America Equity Research

LatAm First to Market 02 July 2026

Top Stories

| SIMPAR & Subsidiaries (Guilherme Mendes)

Downgrading SIMH to Neutral on Holding Discount; JSLG Preferred Within the Group

We are updating our estimates for SIMPAR (SIMH3, N) and its listed subsidiaries Movida (MOVI3, N), VAMOS (VAMO3, OW),

and JSL (JSLG3, OW), following Movida’s removal from restriction, the incorporation of J.P. Morgan's latest macroeconomic

assumptions, and their respective capital increases . We take this opportunity to downgrade SIMPAR to Neutral (from

Overweight) on valuation grounds, as its holding discount currently stands at 10% — below both our model's fair value estimate

of 25% and the historical average of approximately 20% . While we acknowledge management's efforts to reduce leverage at

the holding level — R$1.2 billion post capital injection, down from R$4.0 billion in mid-2023 — we believe that additional

initiatives, such as a potential sale of the CS Infra Ports division, are likely to yield only modest benefits, and may not be

sufficient to justify the current holding discount, in our view.

Mexico Consumer (Froylan Mendez/Joseph Giordano/Lucas Ferreira)

1st Survey Results: Stressed Consumers, Structural Down-Trade, Private Label Rise, & Proximity

Imperative

In a still-fragile Mexican consumer backdrop, our survey (conducted in May with 1,038 respondents) reinforces a value +

proximity playbook and a durable down-trade environment, with the clearest relative winners skewing to hard-discount /

proximity formats and to CPGs that can defend share via price-pack architecture and multi-brand ladders.