U.S. Machinery & Construction: State FY Budget Reset: 2026-27 Edition

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Machinery & Construction: State FY Budget Reset: 2026-27 Edition

Equity Research

1 July 2026

U.S. Machinery & Construction

State FY Budget Reset: 2026-27

Edition

Into FY27 revenues are growing faster than spending, while U.S. Machinery & Construction

transportation funding remains largely insulated from POSITIVE

broader budget pressures. DOT spending is generally flat to U.S. Machinery & Construction

Adam Seiden, CFA

up, supported by dedicated fuel taxes, registration fees, and +1 212 526 2212

other earmarked revenues; capital projects over adam.seiden@barclays.com

BCI, US

maintenance. Vraj Patel

+1 212 526 2773

July 1 is day one of the new fiscal year for most states. The state of the US states is defined vraj.patel1@barclays.com

by consistent revenue growth but lower expected expenditures. 1) General BCI, US

fund (GF) revenues are expected to be up in FY27 (+2.5%) compared to modest declines in Tyler Russell

spending (-1.4%). The decline in GF expenditure is the first in several years but follows notable +1 212 526 7584

growth in recent years and 7.9% growth in FY2026 (revised upward). In FY26, spending outgrew tyler.russell@barclays.com

revenues, which is expected to reverse in FY27 (Fig 3-4). Revenue growth has been modest BCI, US

following record growth (~16%) in both 2021 and 2022. 2) Declining GF expenditures Benjamin Falk

demonstrate a tighter budget environment but outgrowth in revenues is a positive. Slower +1 212 526 9497

growth in tax collections and inflationary pressures contribute to the constrained budget benjamin.falk@barclays.com

environment; cost inflation is prominent in medicine, housing, and education. Budgets included BCI, US

spending cuts like eliminating vacant positions, hiring freezes, and fewer one-time expenditures