Novonesis: Look for +7% Q2 OSG

Research evidence excerpt

Novonesis: Look for +7% Q2 OSG

trim further to +2%, reflecting assumed continued weakness Price Performance Exchange-CSE

in US probiotics, as flagged at Q1. In AET, we forecast Q2 growth of +8.3%, supported by stronger 52 Week range DKK 463.80-336.80

Bioenergy and Tech, offsetting the non-repeat of the €14m one-off inventory build in Animal

seen in Q1.

H2 growth profile intact; OSG likely skews to Q4: We continue to forecast c7% OSG in H2,

although we now assume slightly stronger Household growth offsetting weaker Human Health

where we expect US supplement demand to remain somewhat subdued. Reflecting two year

comps, our base case is a skew of H2 growth to Q4 when we forecast +9% OSG vs. Q3 closer to

+5%. Within AET in H2, Animal should step down as the Q1 inventory build reverses. However, Source: IDC

Link to Barclays Live for interactive charting

Tech, which was a material drag in Q1, should recover and return to double-digit growth.

Assuming H1 delivery is in line with our expectations, we see scope for management to narrow

up the 5-7% OSG guidance range at the H1 stage. European Chemicals & Ingredients

Alex Sloane

FX supports stronger H2 margin outlook: We forecast a Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin of 37.4%, +44 (0)20 3555 0645

broadly in line with the underlying Q1 level of 37.6% excluding Animal phasing. For FY26, we alexander.sloane@barclays.com

increase our margin estimate by 10bps to 37.5%, reflecting a more favourable USD/EUR Barclays, UK

backdrop which drives +0.4% increase to our EPS. Novonesis' key transactional USD exposure is Setu Sharda

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Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies setu.sharda@barclays.com

covered in its research reports.