Heineken NV: Q2 preview – EM likely to offset Americas weakness

Research evidence excerpt

Heineken NV: Q2 preview – EM likely to offset Americas weakness

Equity Research

European Consumer Staples

1 July 2026

Heineken NV

Q2 preview – EM likely to offset

Americas weakness

Q2 should soften versus Q1 amid tougher comps, with APAC HEIN.AS/HEIA NA OVERWEIGHT

strength and Europe stabilization partly offsetting persistent Unchanged

European Consumer

Americas weakness. Emerging markets remain key, Staples NEUTRAL

Unchanged

supporting earnings growth despite developed-market Price Target EUR 103.00

raised 3% from EUR 100.00pressures ahead.

Price (29-Jun-26) EUR 73.82

Potential Upside/Downside +39.5%Q2 is likely to be softer than Q1 on the back of a tougher comp and a familiar multi-speed

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

narrative of APAC-driven volume growth, Europe stabilisation and persistent Americas

weakness. While portfolio changes and FX offer some support, the investment debate

Market Cap (EUR mn) 41740remains centred on whether emerging market strength can sustainably offset structural

Shares Outstanding (mn) 565.43and cyclical pressure in core developed markets. For Q2, we forecast volumes down -0.5%,

Free Float (%) 48.97price/mix up 2.6% leading to OSG of 2.2%. We expect 4.0% EBIT growth in 1H and 5.2% in

52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 0.8FY, which skews towards the top end of the guided range of 2-6%. We make little changes

Dividend Yield (%) 2.58to our FY26 forecasts except for FX updates.

Return on Equity TTM (%) 10.04

In Americas, structural pressures persist, with limited near-term inflection. Underlying Current BVPS (EUR) 32.07

demand remains weak across key markets, reflecting a mix of macro headwinds and category Source: Bloomberg

challenges. Mexico trends remain negative with continued sell-in vs sell-out dislocation,