Global Macro Chart of the Day "(#113): Updated AI investment..."

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Chart of the Day "(#113): Updated AI investment..."

Global Research

30 June 2026ab

Global Macro Chart of the Day Economics

Global(#113): Updated AI investment contributions

Arend Kapteyn

Economist

US investment is still mostly driven by AI capex arend.kapteyn@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0531

Last week's revision to Q1 US GDP pushed the consumption contribution sharply lower

and the investment contribution higher (see the US daily data recap). Private non-

residential fixed investment grew at a 10½% annualized rate, contributing 1½pp to

headline growth of 2.1%. Investment was again led by AI-related categories—

computers and peripheral equipment grew at nearly 70% annualized and data centre

construction at 31%—but there were also signs of improvement in non-AI business

investment following a weak Q4. The broader picture, however, remains unchanged: on

a four-quarter basis, almost all growth in US investment continues to come from AI-

related categories.

In the chart below, the AI-related categories (while not exclusively AI spending) comprise

private fixed investment in (i) electrical transmission, distribution and industrial

apparatus and (ii) special industry machinery (both components of industrial

equipment); (iii) data centre construction; (iv) computers and peripheral equipment and

(v) communication equipment (both components of information processing

equipment). Together, these categories accounted for 2.38% of GDP in Q1, up from

2.18% in Q4 and 1.85% a year earlier. They now represent 17% of non-residential fixed

investment and 13% of total fixed investment including residential investment.

Their growth contribution is substantially larger than their GDP share. In Q1, these

categories contributed 0.88pp to GDP growth, following contributions of 0.92pp in Q4