US Economic Data "June Nowcasts: Auto sales (SAAR) projected to rise" Musfeldt

Research evidence excerpt

US Economic Data "June Nowcasts: Auto sales (SAAR) projected to rise" Musfeldt

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US Economic Data Economics

AmericasJune Nowcasts: Auto sales (SAAR) projected to

rise Ashley Musfeldt

Strategist

ashley.musfeldt@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 6041

Artour Danilov

artour.danilov@ubs.com

UBS Evidence Lab Nowcasts provide an early read on June indicators

+44-20-7567 5203

UBS Evidence Lab Nowcasts provide timely projections of several key monthly US

Amanda Wilcox

economic indicators ahead of the official releases and other forecasts. Non-traditional

Economist

big data is used to generate the Nowcasts using available data before the end of the amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

month. These Nowcasts differ from the data forecasts published by the US Economics +1-212-713 3899

team, whose projections use a separate methodology and often incorporate additional

data. The June Nowcasts are shown in Figure 1. Links to the real-time history of the

model-generated Nowcasts are below to allow clients to back-test and assess the signal.

UBS Evidence Lab Nowcast expects ISM Manufacturing at 52.7

UBS Evidence Lab’s latest Nowcast indicates that retail spending, excluding autos and

gasoline, is projected to rise by 0.43% month over month in June. Core CPI is expected

to increase by 22 basis points in the Nowcast, slightly above the US Economics team’s

estimate of 21 bps (link here). Within components, the Nowcast expects rent to climb by

30 bps, while lodging prices are forecast to decline by 93 bps. New vehicle prices are

estimated to decline by 16 bps in the Nowcast, whereas energy CPI is projected to

decline by 594 bps. Overall, the Nowcast anticipates headline CPI is to decline by 25 bps,