Morning Expresso – Australasia "Tuesday 30 June 2026"

Research evidence excerpt

Morning Expresso – Australasia "Tuesday 30 June 2026"

JB Hi-Fi - Reduced EPS estimates (UBSe below VA) and long crowded position; downgrade

to Neutral

JBH long crowded and downside risk to consensus FY26E earnings Retailers, Specialty

Following a period of mixed share price performance (+21% vs low of A$68.89 3-Jun-26) but

underperforming since 1H26 result (JBH -6.2%, ASX100 -1.1%) we downgrade from Buy to Neutral

noting a balanced rather than attractive risk reward. JBH is long crowded as per the UBS Quant insights, RATING: Neutral

with downside risk to consensus estimates as UBSe revised FY26E/27E/28E EPS is -2.8%/-2.8%/- TARGET: A$83.00

0.5% vs Visible Alpha. Upside risks to our view would be if the Officeworks competition is more short

lived, while downside risks to our view would be if the Officeworks technology focus proves very

successful. PRICE: A$83.60

Reduce UBSe earnings due to competition weighing on sales & gross margins MCAP: A$9.14b/US$6.31b

We reduce JBH earnings estimates to more fully reflect the concerns of heightened competitive activity

noted by JBH at its 3Q26 sales in 2H26E. We lower sales growth estimates as we have less confidence

that JB Aust can manage the very difficult comp (+8.2% 4Q25) despite a record of being able to EPS ESTIMATES:

manage this historically, noting some availability issues and heightened competition, especially from 06/26E: 4.37

Officeworks, which is expected to weigh on gross margins more than previously expected. We revise 06/27E: 4.43

FY26E/27E/28E EPS by -1.1%/-3.1%/-4.6% due to lower JB Aust (lower sales growth & margin 06/28E: 4.82

expansion due to risk of greater competition). Looking forward, post the WES Strategy Briefing Day, we RIC: JBH.AX