First Read: KOF Data "Swiss Watch KOF Data – Jun Reading +0.2" Pusz

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: KOF Data "Swiss Watch KOF Data – Jun Reading +0.2" Pusz

Global Research

30 June 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesKOF Data

Swiss Watch KOF Data – Jun Reading +0.2 Europe including UK

Textiles & Apparel

Zuzanna Pusz, CFA

June survey of Swiss watch producers shows mixed sentiment Analyst

June data from the KOF Swiss Economic Institute’s monthly survey of Swiss watch zuzanna.pusz@ubs.com

producers indicates mixed trends. Expectations for production plans over the next three +39 027 2100 226

months softened m/m to +0.2 (restated May: +1.0), while sentiment regarding expected Robert Krankowski

orders over the same period improved to +0.2 (May: -4.3). Importantly, while the June Analyst

production reading moderated sequentially, it remains significantly better than the 12 robert.krankowski@ubs.com

month average of -20.4, supporting our view that the sector continues to recover from +44-20-7568 1152

the August 2025 trough (restated -53.6, the weakest level since late 2016).

Although global uncertainty is likely to persist, resulting in continued volatility in m/m

trends, the data broadly supports our view that the sector is gradually bottoming out.

This improvement appears to be aided by luxury brands’ efforts to address both luxury

fatigue and the excessive price inflation seen in recent years.

Given the historical correlation of ~0.75 between KOF production plans and Swiss

watch exports (SWE), we note that the latest KOF data suggest June SWE, due for

release on 21 July, could be broadly flat m/m. Adjusting for the number of working days,

this would imply June wristwatch exports of approximately +DD% y/y.

We remain Neutral on the watch category overall, which we view as less attractive over

the long term than soft luxury and jewellery.