South African Mining "Sentiment has derated faster than fundamentals" Friedman

Research evidence excerpt

South African Mining "Sentiment has derated faster than fundamentals" Friedman

Global Research

30 June 2026ab

South African Mining Equities

South AfricaSentiment has derated faster than fundamentals

Mining & Metals

Steve Friedman

Macro re-rating fades, stock selection returns Analyst

Investor sentiment towards South African mining equities has deteriorated materially in steve.friedman@ubs.com

recent months as commodity enthusiasm faded, geopolitical risk premiums normalised +27-11-322 7252

and concerns around Chinese demand resurfaced. Higher US real yields and a stronger Myles Allsop

US dollar have further challenged the debasement trade that supported much of the Analyst

sector's outperformance over the past year. We believe recent share price weakness has myles.allsop@ubs.com

been more pronounced than the deterioration in underlying fundamentals, creating +44-20-7568 1693

increasingly differentiated opportunities across the sector. We believe the broad macro- Ndumiso Lushaba

driven re-rating phase is largely behind us, with future returns increasingly driven by Associate Analyst

company-specific execution, commodity fundamentals and valuation, making stock ndumiso.lushaba@ubs.com

selection more important than sector positioning. Our lower price targets reflect +27-11-322 7094

commodity and earnings revisions, together with more conservative valuation Daniel Major

assumptions following the recent sector de-rating (spot multiples down ~25-30% from Analyst

2026 highs). daniel.major@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 3472

Gold: Near-term upside more balanced, but equities remain well supported

Following an exceptional rally, near-term upside in gold appears more balanced as firmer

US economic data, higher real yields and a stronger US dollar weigh on investor

positioning.