Lodging Presentation "Lodging Industry Outlook" Farley

Research evidence excerpt

Lodging Presentation "Lodging Industry Outlook" Farley

Global Research

30 June 2026ab

Lodging Presentation Equities

AmericasLodging Industry OutlookPlease

Lodging

Robin M. Farley

Analyst

robin.farley@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2060

Arpine Kocharyan

arpine.kocharyan@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2086

Derin Sezercan

Associate Analyst

derin.sezercan@ubs.com

+1-212-713 4716

Anoop Savio

anoop.savio@ubs.com

+1-212-713 1057

Robert Henry

robert.henry@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2256Leisuretravel has seen faster recovery

Leisure travel has led the lodging recovery, while group and business transient have been

slower to recover. 2025 RevPAR was flattish (down -0.3% YOY) or up +15.3% vs '19,

U.S. RevPAR ended '24 up +2% YOY or up +16% vs. '19, after '23 was up +5% YOY or

+14% ahead of '19 levels. YTD through end of May'26 US RevPAR was up +4.2% YOY,

with April'26 YTD up +4.0% YOY, Mar'26 YTD RevPAR up +3.8% YOY, Feb'26 YTD

RevPAR up +2.4% YOY,and this follows a +0.4% YOY increase in Jan '26. U.S. RevPAR

has sequentially improved towards the end of Q1'26. U.S. RevPAR has turned positive in

1Q26 after facing three consecutive quarters of decline with Q4’25 RevPAR down -1.1%

YOY, Q3’25 RevPAR down -1.4% YOY, Q2’25 RevPAR down -0.5% YOY but Q1’25

RevPAR up +2.2% YOY.

Business transient next leg of recovery

As leisure demand has driven the lodging recovery, we expect incremental upside to

RevPAR to come from business transient. We downgraded CHH in summer 2022 to

Neutral given that we believe it will be difficult to grow rates on top of the near double-

digit % increases vs. ’19 that it has captured. We maintain our Buy rating on HLT and our

Neutral rating on MAR – while both are more asset-light than in previous downturns,

HLT has slightly better unit growth. We also maintain our Neutral ratings on asset-heavy