Pernod-Ricard SA: Q4 preview: A transition quarter to end a volatile year

Research evidence excerpt

Pernod-Ricard SA: Q4 preview: A transition quarter to end a volatile year

Equity Research

European Consumer Staples

30 June 2026

Pernod-Ricard SA

Q4 preview: A transition quarter to

end a volatile year

Pernod’s Q4 should mark the end of a tough transition year, PERP.PA/RI FP OVERWEIGHT

with sales still pressured by US/China weakness and Middle Unchanged

European Consumer

East disruption. We trim FY26 OSG to -3.6% but leave FY27 at Staples NEUTRAL

Unchanged

+3.2%, seeing easier comps and fading disruption. Remain Price Target EUR 93.00

UnchangedOW, PT €93.

Price (29-Jun-26) EUR 64.88

Potential Upside/Downside +43.3%Pernod is set to release Q4/FY results on 27 Aug '26. We forecast Q4 OSG at -1.7%, a slight

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

decline vs Q3 (flat), meaning FY OSG arrives at -3.6% (vs -3.2% previously), within the

guide of -3% to -4% for the FY. We expect FY26 represents the final chapter of what

Market Cap (EUR mn) 16367management has characterised as a transition year for Pernod Ricard, with the group

Shares Outstanding (mn) 252.27navigating a complex and volatile macro backdrop. We still believe that FY27 will be a

Free Float (%) 77.34more supportive year as distribution disruptions fade, and macro disruption eases. We

52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 0.7forecast FY26 profit growth at -6.2% (vs -5.6% previously) as the impact from the Middle

Dividend Yield (%) 7.24East war continues to impact the top line. We expect Pernod to defend margins to a large

Return on Equity TTM (%) 8.81extent, but for some headwinds to prevail.

Current BVPS (EUR) 61.49

The US remains a challenged market for Pernod, although we think this is temporarily Source: Bloomberg

worsened by distribution disruption, with 9M year-to-date organic sales down -14% against a