Novartis: Q2'26 Prev./update. For Q2 BARe in line on Revs/EBIT/EPS vs. BBG cons & BARCe FY26 guide reit; all eyes on pipeline

Research evidence excerpt

Novartis: Q2'26 Prev./update. For Q2 BARe in line on Revs/EBIT/EPS vs. BBG cons & BARCe FY26 guide reit; all eyes on pipeline

Equity Research

European Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences

30 June 2026

Novartis

Q2'26 Prev./update. For Q2 BARe

in line on Revs/EBIT/EPS vs. BBG

NOVN.S/NOVN SW EQUAL WEIGHTcons & BARCe FY26 guide reit; all

Unchanged

European Pharmaceuticals,eyes on pipeline Biotechnology & Life NEUTRAL

Sciences

BARCe Q2 at -2.3%/-9.5% LC YoY on Revs/Core OP, consistent Unchanged

with Q2 guide. BARCe +0.1/+0.5% on Revs/Core OP vs. BBG Price Target CHFUnchanged120.00

cons. BARCe FY26 LC guide reiteration. With in-line Q2 Price (29-Jun-26) CHF 126.20

update, focus remains on busy H2 pipeline: 1) Pela CV risk, 2) Potential Upside/Downside -4.9% Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

remi RMS and 3) Del-des DM1, BARCe balanced risk/reward.

Market Cap (CHF mn) 256794

NOVN will report Q2'26 on Tuesday 21 July. Shares Outstanding (mn) 2034.82

Free Float (%) 92.66

For Q2 we forecast Revenues at -2.3% LC and EBIT -9.5% LC, consistent with NOVN's Q2 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 2.8

guide for the top line to "decline LSD LC" and for "Core OP to see a HSD/LDD LC Dividend Yield (%) 2.93

decline". For Q2, we forecast 2.3% LC Revenue decline, along with a 1.6% Fx tailwind. Oncology Return on Equity TTM (%) 35.21

is modelled to be the key driver of Revenue growth at +30% LC and we forecast Neuroscience Current BVPS (CHF) 20.18

+17.4% LC, Immunology +4.2% LC, and CV and Established Medicines to decline by 34.5% and Source: Bloomberg

19.2%, respectively. After reflecting 2% yoy OpEx growth, we forecast 9.5% LC Core operating

income decline, only partly offset by a 0.8% FX tailwind on EBIT (details below). Price Performance Exchange-VTX

52 Week range CHF 131.00-91.20