Barclays Mix Monitor: Rail Revenue Through Week 25

Research evidence excerpt

Barclays Mix Monitor: Rail Revenue Through Week 25

Equity Research

30 June 2026

North America Transportation

Barclays Mix Monitor: Rail Revenue

Through Week 25

US rail volumes improve mid-to-high single digits YoY, with all North America Transportation

North American carriers still tracking well ahead of 2Q POSITIVE

consensus revenue estimates. North America Transportation

Brandon R. Oglenski

+1 212 526 8903

2Q26 Revenue Through June 27, 2026 brandon.oglenski@barclays.com

North American rail volumes generally improved with Norfolk Southern, Canadian National and BCI, US

Canadian Pacific Kansas City posting better than usual sequential volumes for week 25, with Eric Morgan, CFA

CSX in line and Union Pacific a touch behind average outcomes for the week. Industry QTD +1 212 526 9642

volumes remain up 4% on a YoY basis (through week 24) supported by less challenging eric.morgan@barclays.com

comparisons, with growth across most major commodity groups aside from coal (owing to BCI, US

contraction in Canada and the Western US). Among the carriers, CSX and NSC lead the group on

QTD volumes (through week 24) with chemicals, coal and intermodal supporting 4-6% growth

YoY (on a unit basis). UNP carloads are up 3% (with steep coal declines partially offsetting solid

growth elsewhere) while units are roughly flat at CPKC (with increased agricultural shipments

offsetting declines in coal) and down 1% at CN (with grain offsetting weaker intermodal).

On revenue estimates, we mark to market carrier results quarter to date for the latest reported

volumes, RTMs, diesel prices and FX rates. Our analysis indicates all five publicly traded carriers

are tracking 3-6pts ahead of consensus top-line estimates for 2Q26, likely aided by significantly

higher fuel surcharge revenue.