First Read: Daily Commodities Note "Metals and iron ore higher, but..."

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Daily Commodities Note "Metals and iron ore higher, but..."

Economic Headlines

Australia’s resources sector faces heightened strike risks at major iron ore mines and

ports. Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed working days lost to disputes jumped

in the December quarter of 2025 to their highest level since 2022...

Key UBS Research

Lithium - Taking Stock: We take stock midway through 2026 and reflect on key

debates… Lithium prices have retreated in the last 1-2mths, with concerns focused on

rising battery inventories, weak China NEV sales, an accelerating / uncertain supply

response eg: CATL, a potential policy-driven ESS demand bring-forward, and concerns

on emergent sodium-ion battery technology. We reflect on key debates below and find

fundamentals overall carrying encouraging momentum into 2H-26. Notwithstanding

that, we mark-to-market down spodumene and chemical prices 9-23% across

CY26/27E, but remain bullish lithium price momentum. The weaker price outlook sees

our price targets trimmed, but we remain positive on the equities: LTR (Buy, $2.50/sh PT -

7%), IGO (Buy, $9.65/sh PT, -1%), and PMT.ASX/PMT.TSX (Buy, A$0.90/sh/C$8.50/sh

PTs unchanged), with PLS retained on a Neutral ($5.60/sh PT, -17%). Link to note.

Source: UBS.

Capricorn Metals - Wait for the next leg of growth is (nearly) over; initiate with

a Buy rating. About as simple as it gets. Capricorn Metals (CMM.ASX) operate the

expanding Karlawinda Gold Project and the Mt Gibson Gold development project, both

in Western Australia, with FY26 production guide of 120koz at $1,580/oz AISC at the

midpoint, and a pathway to +300kozpa by FY29. Large, low cost, (predominantly) open

pit projects with simple flowsheets in Western Australia makes for a simple investment