U.S. Apartment REITs "Monthly Rent Check - June 2026" Goldsmith

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Apartment REITs "Monthly Rent Check - June 2026" Goldsmith

o 2026, and June YTD indexed rent growth in June

was below May (no data available for CPT). We think this indicates that conditions

remain choppy in the Sunbelt as market-level concessions burn off. However, the results

for the Coastal REITs demonstrate the rapid pace of improvement that can be generated

as supply moderates. From here, there are still concerns around slow hiring of new

college grads and general macro instability, but we think YTD accelerations in asking

rents suggest that worst case scenarios are off the table for 2Q'26. Further, low turnover

should continue to support elevated renewal spreads.

REIT-level performance has favored the Coastal REITs over Sunbelt REITs

We identified a significant correlation between indexed CoStar rents by REIT and REIT

reported new lease growth, with R values spanning from 0.47-0.82, with the exception

of CPT. Given the discrepancy for CPT, we calculate a MSA-weighted average of asking

rent growth across its markets.

What were results for the REITs? On an absolute basis, ESS had the strongest

results with end-of-June rents indexed to January 1, 2026 of up 7.2%, per CoStar.

This was followed by AVB and EQR at growth of 5.1% and 4.8%, respectively.

UDR was in the middle of the group with 3.3% (a notable improvement over May

of 2.1%). MAA trailed the group with rents rising by 1.5%.

CPT and IRT rent growth per CoStar is determined based on a weighted average

across 23 primary REIT markets, which accounts for 99% and 86% of the REIT's

total SSNOI, respectively. The CoStar data indicated a 1.0% increase in YTD

indexed rent growth for CPT MSAs, above YTD 2025 by 20 bps. Similarly, IRT MSAs

experienced growth of 1.2% growth YTD, consistent with YTD 2025 levels. We