Weekly (AO) | Transition & ESG Weekly

Research evidence excerpt

Weekly (AO) | Transition & ESG Weekly

Weekly

We expect management to reiterate the full-year guidance, which implies a typically strong H2 operational and financial

performance.

The strength of the capital structure should support another phase of the share buyback.

With this report we lower our forecasts, with 2026 adj EBITA now inline with 2026 consensus, while 2027 estimates are c.5%

below. We roll forward our valuation, lifting the price target to DKK210 and reiterate the BUY recommendation.

Acciona | Reduce | Jose Porta - Post AGM press conference: Full exit from Energía very unlikely PDF

Full disposal of Acciona Energía is considered "extremely unlikely"; industrial ownership remains the preferred outcome.

Merger with another utility remains a credible alternative, with valuation and industrial synergies the key decision variables.

Strategic review remains at an early stage, with multiple corporate structures still under consideration.

CAF | Buy | Inigo Egusquiza - What can we expect from the CMD in Q4 PDF

CAF’s share price continues to outperform, reaching new all-time highs and approaching c. EUR65. However, we believe the real

re-rating is ahead.

Since 2019, CAF's profitability has grown even faster than its share price, with EBITDA and EBIT both doubling over the period. We

expect CAF to come close to achieving its 2021-26 targets of c. EUR4.8bn in revenues and c. EUR300m in EBIT without any M&A.

Stronger EBIT margins at Solaris are also helping to offset delays in railway EBIT margin expansion. Looking ahead, we expect the

new 2025-30 strategic plan, due in Q4, to surprise on the upside.

We see this as the catalyst for a meaningful rerating of CAF, as the current consensus figures for 2028-30 seem conservative.