Morning Market Tidbits: Mid-Year review: Hydration Break

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Morning Market Tidbits: Mid-Year review: Hydration Break

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Morning Market Tidbits

Mid-Year review: Hydration Break

Key takeaways 29 June 2026

Economics• We upgraded our global growth forecasts, primarily driven by the AI investment boom

United States

boosting the export cycle in Asia.

• A resilient global economy still faces many risks: Fed hikes, tighter financial Claudio Irigoyen

Global Economist

conditions, the war, and K-shaped dynamics. BofAS

claudio.irigoyen@bofa.com

• Today's events: no major data releases or Fedspeak except Dallas Fed manufacturing

Antonio Gabriel

activity. Global Economist

BofAS

antonio.gabriel@bofa.com

US Economics

What Matters Today: AI investment is driving US growth while boosting exports in China and EM

Global Economics Team

Asia, leading to moderate upward revisions to global growth forecasts BofAS

Contributions to US Final Domestic Demand growth (pp, qoq saar)

Consumer AI Other Final domestic demand

-1

-2

1Q '24 2Q '24 3Q '24 4Q '24 1Q '25 2Q '25 3Q '25 4Q '25 1Q '26

Source: BofA Global Research, Haver

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

AI investment and Asia exports are driving global growth

In our Mid-Year review, we upgraded our global growth forecasts by 10bp across 2026-

2027, and we now expect the global economy to grow 3.2% this year and 3.5% in 2027.

More than the peace deal, the main drivers of the upward revision to global growth this

year are the AI-driven export cycle in Asia and the AI investment boom in the US, while

lower oil prices boost growth mildly in developed markets in 2027. We expect global

inflation to slow down next year, but lower headline is not enough to trigger rate cuts.

Risks: Fed hikes, financial conditions, K-shaped dynamics

Despite our moderate upward revisions, many risks remain.