Trading Catalysts: Watch the payroll print and the hawkish repricing build

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Trading Catalysts: Watch the payroll print and the hawkish repricing build

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Trading Catalysts

Watch the payroll print and the hawkish

repricing build

Activity prints could feed into hawkish Fed narrative 29 June 2026

We expect the Jobs report to be closely watched this week, as one of the main stories of Equity and Quant Strategy

the year has been the resilience of the US economy and labor market. A strong payroll United States

report could add risks for the market to price in more hikes in the US, although our Paula Andrea Soto, CFA >>

economists warn of downside risk to current estimates on Memorial day seasonality LatAm Equity Strategist

factors. Merrill+55 11Lynch2188 (Brazil)4226

Payroll expected at 110k, but lookout for downside risks ThomasHead of Research(T.J.) ThorntonMarketing

Payrolls are expected to come in at healthy 110k (private 120k) in June. Consensus BofAS+1 646 855 2449

expects 113k (private 115k). Claims have been benign and Adp weekly data look strong. Economics

However, we flag downside risks to our payroll forecast since the surge in leisure & Stephen Juneau

hospitality in May could either be World Cup related or due to Memorial day timing USBofASEconomist

seasonality. If it’s the latter, we could get more of a payback than we currently expect. Equity & Quant Strategy

Also, we could see a bigger payback in the local govt sector which also surged in May. Savita Subramanian

The urate is expected to remain at 4.3%, but if HH employment continues to move up, EquityBofAS & Quant Strategist

there is a risk it could round down to 4.2%. Victoria Roloff

Equity & Quant Strategist

Expect 75bp hikes in 2026. 33bp hikes priced in. BofAS