Q2 Residential Preview - It's Not About The Qtr (It's About Slope Of Recovery In

Research evidence excerpt

Q2 Residential Preview - It's Not About The Qtr (It's About Slope Of Recovery In

Real Estate | Residential

June 29, 2026

Steve Sakwa Q2 Residential Preview - It's Not About The

212-446-9462

Steve.Sakwa@evercoreisi.com Qtr (It's About Slope Of Recovery Into '27)

Manus Ebbecke, CFA The residential REIT earnings setup is shifting from broad-based

212-812-2910 caution to a more differentiated debate around market quality,

Manus.Ebbecke@evercoreisi.com capital allocation, timing of a recovery in the Sunbelt and slope

of the recovery into 2027.

Within apartments, the AVB/EQR merger has reset the sector

conversation from near-term lease rate acceleration to whether

scale, operating leverage, technology-enabled margin

expansion, balance sheet capacity and self-funded growth can

create a structurally stronger platform. ESS remains the

cleanest coastal story, with the Bay Area the strongest

apartment market in the country right now.

CPT & MAA remain the read-throughs for a Sun Belt recovery,

where investors are focused on whether new lease pressure has

peaked, renewals remain resilient and management teams are

gaining confidence in a 2027 acceleration although the

magnitude of the recovery is what’s open to debate. UDR

appears more stable but less differentiated, with 2Q leasing

commentary a big component although dispositions and

buybacks take center stage. Finally, we are rolling out new

CPT & UDR models with this note.

SFR remains supported by lower homeownership affordability

and stagnant existing home sales while policy risk and capital

allocation remain central to the narrative and both have

improved outlooks with the recent DC overhang subsiding. For

INVH & AMH, earnings focus should center on new lease

progression through June, expense inflation, disposition