PGM miners Remaining constructive

Research evidence excerpt

PGM miners Remaining constructive

29 June 2026

Equities

Metals & MiningPGM miners

Remaining constructive South Africa

◆ Market has reevaluated its expectations for EV penetration Shilan Modi*, CFA

rates given the impact on the oil market in recent months Analyst, Metals & Mining HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, DIFC

shilan.modi@hsbc.com

◆ Cut our near-term PGM price forecasts but remain +971 564 1212 04

constructive on the sector given persistent deficits Jonathan Brandt, CFA

Analyst, GEMs ex-Asia Metals & Mining, Pulp & Paper

HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

◆ Maintain Buy ratings on all PGM miners, TPs adjusted lower jon.brandt@us.hsbc.com

+1 212 525 4499

Ishan Jain*

Why the PGM miners derated: Since the onset of the US-Iran war, there has been Analyst, Metals & Mining, Pulp & Paper

a rapid shift (downwards) in the market’s expectations of future ICE vehicle demand. HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private

Limited

We think this was driven by the prospect of higher oil/fuel prices as well as potential ishanjain@hsbc.co.in

for product shortages. Now, as the market appears to be pricing in the potential for a +91 80 4550 3767

deal to be concluded (as we can see oil and fuel prices falling towards pre-war

levels), we are left considering whether the market will readjust its view on EV * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

penetration rates (lower again) and therefore ICE vehicle demand (higher again) and

the potential impact this could have on the PGM miners. We remain constructive as

we see deficits remaining for the foreseeable future and therefore, we anticipate a

constructive price environment, albeit off a lower base. The miners remain largely