Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) Buy: A platform stock opportunity at a pivotal moment

Research evidence excerpt

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) Buy: A platform stock opportunity at a pivotal moment

Equities ● Auto Components

29 June 2026

What the market is pricing

We think the recent share-price correction reflects three concerns:

First, Physical AI has a longer cash-flow realisation curve than pure AI, especially amid muted

China auto demand. Horizon’s HSD 1H26 run-rate is bit behind schedule, partly due to weak

OEM shipments from weak demand although more shipments likely to be back-end loaded in

2H26 on later scheduled model cycle. Pure AI trades on token growth; Physical AI trades on

deployment proof. Autonomous driving, robotaxis and humanoid robots are constrained by

hardware integration, safety validation, supply-chain scale, regulation and consumer adoption.

This makes the equity-market timeline less linear, even if the end opportunity remains large.

Second, the market worries that AD software is becoming commoditised. This concern is not

wrong at the function level. Highway NOA and basic ADAS features are moving from premium

differentiation to standard configuration. Pricing pressure is normal when a feature becomes

standard. But we think the market is extrapolating this too far. In AD, “good enough” software is

not good enough when the feature becomes a brand promise. Horizon with hardware and

software integration capabilities is still better positioned.

Third, the market is concerned that large OEMs will insource the stack, reducing the role of

third-party suppliers. BYD’s in-house chip ambition has become the focal point of this debate.

This is understandable: BYD is the largest and most capable OEM in China, with unmatched

scale, vertical integration and execution. However, we think the market’s interpretation is too

linear.