Americas FX Morning Bullets 29 June 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Americas FX Morning Bullets 29 June 2026

29 June 2026

Americas FX Morning Bullets CurrenciesGlobal

◆ USD stabilising ahead of a key week for rhetoric and data Daragh Maher

Head of Digital Assets Research, Sr FX Strategist

◆ ECB rhetoric mixed and upcoming data may not aid clarity HSBC Bank plc

daragh.maher@hsbc.com

+44 20 7991 8888

◆ GBP may have to be patient in pricing UK political risks

Clyde Wardle

Senior EM FX Strategist

After a challenging second half of last week, the USD appears to be stabilising HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

clyde.wardle@us.hsbc.com

this morning. The headlines over the weekend were dominated by reports of +1 646 610 3260

renewed military attacks by Iran and the US, but then it was announced the US and Tom Wookey

Iran had agreed to cease the attacks. The FX market seems progressively less European FX Strategist

HSBC Bank plc

sensitive to geopolitical headlines, perhaps because it seems the protagonists are thomas.wookey@hsbc.com

keen to find a diplomatic rather than military solution. This means the focus for FX is +44 20 79913367

instead on Fed policy, so Wednesday’s appearance by Fed Chair Warsh at a central Joseph Incalcaterra, CFA

Head of Latin America (LatAm) Macro Strategy

bank governors’ panel at Sintra will be closely watched. So too will be the data from HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

Friday’s unemployment report, which is likely to show continued labour market joseph.incalcaterra@us.hsbc.com +1 212 525 5606

resilience. Yesterday, the Fed’s Barkin argued that inflation is too high and that it will

take Fed action or changes in the labour market to bring it back to 2%. With 33bp of

tightening priced by the end of this year, the rates market seems to agree. We

believe the prospect of hikes for healthy reasons will continue to support the USD.