Global Macro Commentary: June 30: AI Rally Meets Yield Pressure

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Commentary: June 30: AI Rally Meets Yield Pressure

Update

July 1, 2026 03:27 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMGlobal Macro Commentary | North America Molly Nickolin

Strategist

June 30: AI Rally Meets Yield Molly.Nickolin@morganstanley.comLingdi Xu +1 212 761-3592

Economist

Lingdi.Xu@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2957

Pressure Sofia Palacios

Sofia.Palacios@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428

AI tech led equities into quarter-end; JOLTS beat lifted UST

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

yields; ECB hike urgency faded after softer CPI; yen held near Gek Teng Khoo

40y lows; Colombia hiked 75bp; DXY at 101.17 (+0.1%); US 10y at StrategistGek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0303

4.47 (+9.1bp).

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Hiromu UezatoStronger US labor demand and quarter-end positioning pushed yields higher,

while AI-linked equity strength kept risk sentiment constructive. Hiromu.Uezato@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8431

Developed Markets Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

Nimish M Prabhune

• US rates bear-steepened after May JOLTS job openings rose to 7.594mn, Strategist

Nimish.Prabhune@morganstanley.com +91 22 6996-1862

above consensus, and traders rebuilt Fed hike premium into the front

end. The move extended into the month-end close as Treasury futures Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Jasper Knyphausen

selling accelerated, with long-end yields closing near session highs. The curve Strategist

cheapened broadly (2y: +6.8bp; 10y: +9.1bp; 30y: +8.8bp). Fed funds markets Jasper.Knyphausen@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2185

priced a still-low but rising probability of a July hike, while September

expectations also moved higher. The sell-off came despite the Treasury

market still finishing June with a modest gain due to lower inflation