Gaming Bi-Weekly Bookmaker Barometer: World Cup Edition

Research evidence excerpt

Gaming Bi-Weekly Bookmaker Barometer: World Cup Edition

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

30 June 2026

Gaming

Bi-Weekly Bookmaker Barometer: World Cup Edition

This note showcases our bi-weekly FIFA World Cup Bookmaker Barometer, a European Leisure, Hotels & Gaming

ACframework designed to interpret match results and understand their directional Estelle Weingrod

impact on bookmakers. The tracker turns each completed match into an intuitive (44-20) 7742-8502

signal of whether the outcome was more likely bookie-negative (i.e., the most estelle.weingrod@jpmorgan.com

probable pre-match result occurs) or positive (i.e., the most probable pre-match J.P. Morgan Securities plc

result does not occur), and assigns a comparable score that can be aggregated Karan Puri AC

across matchdays to indicate whether a slate likely favoured bettors or (44-20) 7742-8342

karan.puri@jpmorgan.com

bookmakers. For the purpose of this analysis, we assume publicly-backed bets J.P. Morgan Securities plc

align with the most probable match result (home win, draw, or away win) implied

Avni Garg

by the pre-match market. This tracker is designed to assess directionality rather (91-22) 6157-3431

than provide bookmaker profit estimates – it does not capture parameters avni.garg@jpmchase.com

around actual stakes, parlays/accumulators, in-play, or prop markets, which will J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

add some variability to the bookies outcomes for each game.

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• Week 3 (ongoing) continues to be bookie-negative, although with Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales -

knockout stages broadly neutral to date: Match results in the first half of European Consumer

week 3 appeared unfavourable for bookmakers from a directional impact (44-20) 3493-3709

perspective.