OMF: Q2 Preview—Softer Q2 NCO Est, but Lower Gas Prices Will Help

Research evidence excerpt

OMF: Q2 Preview—Softer Q2 NCO Est, but Lower Gas Prices Will Help

Equity Research

Earnings Revised — June 26, 2026

Consumer Finance

OneMain Holdings, Inc.

Q2 Preview—Softer Q2 NCO Est, but Lower Gas Prices Will Equal Weight

Help Price Target: $65.00

Notable Changes

Our Call $ (Dec) Current Prior % Chg

Higher NCOs and provision expense drive our lower-than-consensus Q2 EPS estimate. EPS 2026 7.15 7.30 -2.0%

We are raising our Q2 C&I NCO rate to 8.38%, implying only slight q/q improvement from EPS 2027 8.58 8.80 -2.5%

8.43% in Q1. But we believe '26 NCO guidance of 7.4-7.9% will remain unchanged. Rev. (MM) 2026 5.25B 5.26B -0.2%

Rev. (MM) 2027 5.60B 5.63B -0.5%

Q2 EPS Estimate. We are lowering our Q2 EPS estimate -14c, to $1.17 vs. consensus at

$1.37 as we account for higher NCO rates and maintain a stable reserve rate. Our full- Ticker OMF

year EPS is also down -15c, to $7.15. While early-stage DQs have been solid, NCOs have Upside/(Downside) to Target 8.5%

remained elevated in ABS data. Our rev est is $1.28B and our expenses of $493M are

Price (06/25/2026) $59.89

both in line with consensus. We diverge from the Street primarily on provision expenses.

52 Week Range $45.78 - 71.93

Market Cap (MM) $7,023

Higher Q2 NCOs. We forecast Q2 NCO at 8.38%, up from 7.97% previously as we account

for higher loss rates in recent trust data. We now expect full-year 2026 NCOs at 7.84%, Enterprise Value (MM) $27,857

at the higher end of the 7.4-7.9% guidance range. We sense that '26 NCO guidance will Average Daily Value (MM) $67

remain unchanged, and we note that mgmt expects significant loss improvement in Dividend Yield 7.2%

2H'26. We view the May ABS data for DQs as more mixed vs. prior months, though the

company views performance as generally in line with seasonality. See May Data.