U.S. Consumer Finance: Weekly Debrief | Volume 3 | Issue 26

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Consumer Finance: Weekly Debrief | Volume 3 | Issue 26

Barclays | U.S. Consumer Finance

Upcoming Events

• Barclays: Discussing MSR market dynamics with Phoenix Capital, 07/10/2026. Please join us

for a virtual discussion with Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSR) industry expert Jeff Boyd, from

Phoenix Capital, on the current MSR market dynamics.

Recent Research

• Takeaways from Moody's Consumer Finance Call, 06/26/2026. We hosted Moody's for their

views on Consumer Finance. They remain cautious but constructive on the consumer,

observing resilient credit but some pressures in subprime. In mortgage finance, Moody's

expects the 30Y FRM to remain elevated, and for consolidation to remain a key theme in the

sector.

• Stress Test Results 2026 for AXP, COF, and SYF, 06/24/2026. Based on results last week, we

estimate COF's stress capital buffer (SCB) would be 3.7%, an improvement of ~80bps from

last year, and both AXP's and SYF's stress capital buffers to be 2.5%. Recall the Fed

announced in Feb that the Board voted to maintain SCB requirements until 2027.

• FNF: Takeaways from Investor Meetings with FNF Management, 06/23/2026. We hosted FNF

for investor meetings today. Key topics of discussion included FG, commercial revenue

drivers, AI, and the updated resi outlook. Overall, commercial remains a bright spot for title

while resi purchase remains at trough levels.

• SLM: Estimating Impact from 3rd Party Collections Noise, 06/15/2026. SLM provided a

company update last week indicating that a third party has been pressuring credit

performance (we estimate a ~10bps NCO impact in 1Q). SLM has moved all debt resolutions

in-house and expects some near-term pressure, including higher NCOs from lower

recoveries (~10c impact).

• BFH: Takeaways from BFH Management Dinner, 06/09/2026.