Fertiglobe Plc: Model update

Research evidence excerpt

Fertiglobe Plc: Model update

Equity Research

European Integrated Energy

29 June 2026

Fertiglobe Plc

Model update

Reflecting the recent drop in Urea prices, we have revised our

estimates. After marking to market, we reduced our 2Q26

EBITDA and Net earnings projection to $404m and $171m, FERTIGLB.AD/FERTIGLB DH OVERWEIGHT Unchanged

respectively. European Integrated Energy POSITIVE

Unchanged

We have trimmed our 2Q26 forecasts primarily to reflect the sharp correction in urea prices Price Target AED 3.50

during June, although average realised prices for the quarter remained well above pre-crisis lowered -3% from AED 3.60

levels. Despite the recent pull back, earnings momentum remains robust, supported by Price (26-Jun-26) AED 2.81

elevated quarterly pricing. Potential Upside/Downside +24.6%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

• Urea prices have corrected sharply in recent weeks, driven by the return of Chinese exports

and what appears to be deferred demand. We calculate Egypt urea prices (weekly) averaged Market Cap (AED mn) 23326

close to c.$750/t in 2Q26, up c.35% q/q. While spot urea prices have reverted to January Shares Outstanding (mn) 8301.32

levels, Western Europe ammonia prices are still above pre-war levels. Free Float (%) 13.80

52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 7.7

• Structurally, the market remains tighter than pre-war levels. However, the near-term Dividend Yield (%) 4.14

demand-supply balance is likely to be shaped by flows through Strait of Hormuz, production

Return on Equity TTM (%) 41.01

ramp-ups and incremental supply from GCC producers.

Current BVPS (AED) 0.17

Source: Bloomberg

• Although prices have eased from their highs, we expect plant utilisation to remain strong in

Egypt and Algeria, while forecasting lower UAE volumes due to shipping constraints.