GSK plc: Previewing Q2 Results/Portfolio Review & integrating NUVL, we remain UW

Research evidence excerpt

GSK plc: Previewing Q2 Results/Portfolio Review & integrating NUVL, we remain UW

nal interest expense related to 35Pharma, which

seems not factored in the BBG cons. yet.

Our FY26 forecasts are now at the upper end of the existing LC guide on the top line and

EBIT and middle point of guide on EPS. We model 2026 Revenues growth at +4.7% LC (guide

3-5% LC) and we model Core EPS +7.8% LC Core EPS (guide 7-9% LC). Our FY26 Revenues are

also broadly in-line with BBG cons and our Core EPS is c. 1% ahead.

We expect reiteration of LC FY26 guidance, though we expect GSK to point to now being at

the lower end of the EBIT and EPS guide, given OpEx and interest expense from the NUVL

deal, however with slightly better FX, we expect a wash on a reported basis, and hence

EPS forecasts for '26 won't materially move. The company reiterated at Q1 '26 results

revenue growth at "+3-5% LC", Core operating profit increase at "+7-9% LC" and Core EPS to

grow at "+7-9% LC", and when the Nuvalent deal was announced on June 9th, the company

stated "there is no change for FY26 guidance", however we believe at Q2 GSK could direct

expectations to the lowest end of the range on EBIT and EPS, given the deal costs. On the

positive side, we expect FX headwind improvement, from $ strengthening, which should

broadly offset the LC trim, as we expect GSK to move from end-Apr to end-Jun FX rates, which

could be a c.1 and 2% improvement on the the top and EBIT/bottom-line FX guide respectively

(i.e. -1%/-2% on Revs/EBIT&EPS, vs. prev. -2%/-4%).

Valuation: We now set a GSK PT at c.10.0x '27E EPS (vs. 9.5x earlier) on slightly faster EPS

growth to arrive at our new PT of £19/sh. Our multiple is at a c.30% discount to where the EU

large cap pharma sector is currently trading (i.e. c.14.0x '27E PE).