Saipem (AO) | Buy | No big risk on the publication in our view

Research evidence excerpt

Saipem (AO) | Buy | No big risk on the publication in our view

#EarningsPreview #Positive

Release date: 30 June 2026

Kevin Roger

Head of Energy Equipment and Services

+33 1 53 65 36 74

kroger@keplercheuvreux.com

BuySaipem

Italy | Energy equip. & services Beta Profile: MCap: EUR8.5bn

Target Price: EUR5.00 Bloomberg: SPM IM Reuters: SPMI.MI

Current Price: EUR4.25 Free float 54%

Up/downside: 17.7% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 193.5

YTD abs performance 75.2% Market data: 29 June 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 4.82/2.20

No big risk on the publication in our view

Key points:

A sound order intake will mark Saipem's Q2 report. It will be made of 4 projects, for a total of more than EUR3bn, relatively

equally split between onshore and offshore businesses. Variation/escalation orders could increase the order intake further to

c.EUR3.5bn

Earnings-wise, we do expect the top line to be close to EUR3.7bn with an EBITDA of EUR481m, representing an EBITDA margin of

12.8%. We do not see any major impact from the situation in the Middle East, as execution of projects (especially the ones in

Qatar) remained on track. Concerning overcosts, management was very reassuring in recent events/RSs; the impact from the

Middle East is, for the moment, minor, and the discussions with clients are very constructive (link).

We are slightly ahead of the consensus of EUR463m EBITDA (more in line at EBIT)

By business unit, we do expect a slight increase in the group's Asset-Based division earnings (16.8% EBITDA margin), a flatish

EBITDA margin in the Energy Carrier division (2.5% EBITDA margin) and an improvement in the drilling (39% margin).

We continue to believe that SPM will likely beat its FY2026 EBITDA and net cash flow, but we do believe that SPM could wait until

Q3 before any change on that side.