Friday Freight

Research evidence excerpt

Friday Freight

June 26, 2026

haven't really started to pick up yet. So, the pricing spread between the two

modes continues to widen, with intermodal now approaching a 30% discount

to TL on an all-in basis. And as a result, this IMC is now seeing more conversion

opportunities than he has ever seen in the past. So, his volumes are tracking

up 20% y/y right now as he onboards new customers. Ultimately, our contact

still expects intermodal pricing to follow TL, and is hoping for 6%-8% price

increases on his contract business by the end of C26, and more importantly,

for C27 bid season. From an operational perspective, our contact generally

continues to see strong rail service, but he's increasingly having issues finding

drayage capacity as the truck market tightens. Lastly, this IMC believes the

Montgomery decision has potential to be structurally positive to intermodal, as

it has potential to raise TL driver costs. Our contact believes intermodal drayage

providers are generally safer as a result of the UIIA contracts, which is generally

required for drivers to access intermodal equipment interchanges, and adds

some further screening.

●Railroads (Market Overweight): We spoke with a large chemicals shipper

about recent demand and rail transportation trends. Rail volumes are trending

flattish so far in 2026 with steady demand, despite a continued weak

homebuilding market. Looking ahead, our contact is optimistic that moderating

fuel prices should help boost consumer demand but would also like to see lower

interest rates to get more bullish on volumes. Turning to rail service, this shipper

is experiencing very good service right now in terms of both line haul and local

traffic, and our contact believes that the rails are adequately staffed right now.