Arctic Sector FLASH: Energy - Natural gas prices, higher for longer ?

Research evidence excerpt

Arctic Sector FLASH: Energy - Natural gas prices, higher for longer ?

Energy aprobabilityno-deal outcomeof aroundcorresponding30% to a no-dealto €65/MWh.scenario inPutwhichdifferently,high gasthepricesmarketwouldstill assignspersist. a meaningful

Energy | Sector Flash | 26 June 2026 | 13:46

Forward curve appears too pessimistic

From a longer-term perspective, the forward curve appears too pessimistic in our view. TTF Calendar

Year 2030 trades around $7/MMBtu, compared with approximately $12.5/MMBtu for Brent and $5.2/

Natural gas prices, higher for longer ? MMBtu for coal. Implicitly, this suggests the market is pricing roughly a 75% probability that gas trades

near coal parity and only a 25% probability that gas trades closer to crude oil parity.

● Realignment between oil and gas prices

Structurally tighter for longer● Oil refinery bottlenecks persist, supporting gas prices

We believe a 45/55 probability distribution is more reasonable, reflecting sustained strong gas demand● Meaningful probability of around 30% to a no-deal scenario

growth in Asia and the rest of the world, combined with persistent inflationary pressure on new oil,● Forward curve appears too pessimistic

coal and gas supply. In our view, the market is underpricing the probability that global gas remains● Structurally tighter for longer

structurally tighter for longer.

Realignment between oil and gas prices

Oil and natural gas prices have plunged in recent weeks, seemingly driven by a rising perceived

probability of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have fallen the most, perhaps reflecting

expectations of a faster recovery in crude trade and physical flows, while LNG flows are likely to

recover more gradually given the start-up time required for liquefaction trains. The result has been a