Consumer Finance: Consumer Finance Tidbits: Issue 26-16

Research evidence excerpt

Consumer Finance: Consumer Finance Tidbits: Issue 26-16

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Consumer Finance

Consumer Finance Tidbits: Issue 26-16

Industry Overview

Stress test results largely uneventful for AXP and COF 28 June 2026

American Express (AXP) and Capital One (COF) both announced the result of stress tests Equity

this week. Both companies confirmed existing SCB requirements will remain in place United States

through September 30, 2027, consistent with the Fed’s February decision to maintain Consumer Finance

current SCBs. AXP will remain at the 2.5% minimum SCB, highlighted continued balance

sheet strength, and noted it returned $8.7B to shareholders over the 12 months ended Mihir Bhatia

Research Analyst

3/31/26 while also raising its quarterly dividend 16% to $0.95/share. COF’s SCB remains BofAS

4.5%, though importantly this was calculated prior to the Discover close and therefore +1 415 436 3553 mihir.bhatia@bofa.com

reflects stand-alone Capital One. Our take: AXP’s result is a modest positive / non-event,

Matthew C. O'Neill

reinforcing excess capital flexibility and continued shareholder return capacity. COF’s result Research Analyst

is also broadly in line, but the key nuance is that the 4.5% SCB does not yet incorporate BofAS matthew.c.oneill@bofa.com

Discover, so investor focus will likely remain on the pro forma capital framework, integration Caroline Latta

execution, and any future Fed action rather than this company-run stress test disclosure. Research Analyst

BofAS

UMI increased m/m in May +1caroline.latta@bofa.com646 855 0564

Upstart (UPST) announced two updates this week: first, UMI rose to 1.49 in May from Natalie Howe

1.43 in April, suggesting modestly higher macro-driven default pressure, though still Research Analyst

below elevated early-2024 levels.