Q2 Preview: The Frontline Flywheel

Research evidence excerpt

Q2 Preview: The Frontline Flywheel

Quick Note

June 30, 2026 Nuvation Bio (NUVB)

Rating: Q2 Preview: The Frontline FlywheelOUTPERFORM

Price:

$5.61 We view NUVB’s upcoming 2Q26 earnings as an important checkpoint on the early

12-Month Price Target: commercial trajectory of Ibtrozi, as the launch continues to transition from initial

$11.00 uptake dynamics into a more durable, frontline-driven growth profile. Although

new patient starts remained healthy at ~200 in 1Q26 despite typical early-launch

volatility and seasonal headwinds, reported revenue of $18.5MM understated

Analysts the underlying commercial momentum due to the legacy cohort of later-line

David Nierengarten, Ph.D. patients, whose shorter treatment durations and higher discontinuation rates

(415) 274-6862 continue to weigh on revenue conversion. We believe investors remain overlyDavid.Nierengarten@wedbush.com

focused on quarterly revenue variability, while underappreciating the improvingDennis Pak

(415) 263-6647 composition of new patient starts. As the mix continues to skew toward treatment-

Dennis.Pak@wedbush.com naïve patients with median duration of response of ~four years, we expect

Martin Fan, Ph.D. quarterly revenues to become materially more predictable over the next several

(213) 688-3404 quarters. Importantly, more than half of new starts in the quarter were TKI-naïve,

Martin.Fan@wedbush.com up from ~30% in the first full quarter post-launch, reinforcing the accelerating

shift toward the frontline setting. We model 2Q26 Ibtrozi revenue of $22.2MM

(+20% q/q) and FY26 revenue of $122.3MM, supported by continued frontline

adoption and improving revenue conversion. Our commercial outlook continues

to be supported by both physician survey work and prescription trends. Results